Gemini Reported a $500 Million Loss and Got Sued on the Same Day
Gemini Space Station, Inc. listed on the Nasdaq in September 2025 at $28 per share, briefly touched $40, and has since fallen more than 80% to trade around $6. On Thursday, the same day it released its full-year 2025 earnings, a shareholder named Marc Methvin filed a proposed class-action complaint in Manhattan federal court against the company, its co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, and other executives.
The complaint alleges that Gemini’s IPO documents and subsequent public statements portrayed the exchange as a growing crypto business committed to user acquisition and international expansion, and that the Winklevoss brothers had already decided to pursue a fundamentally different strategy before those assurances were made.
The pivot the lawsuit describes came in early February 2026: the Winklevoss twins announced “Gemini 2.0,” a reorientation of the company around prediction markets, alongside a 25% workforce reduction, the exit of EU, UK, and Australian markets, and the departure within weeks of the company’s chief financial officer, chief operating officer, and chief legal officer.
As recently as November 2025, executives had publicly touted the company’s international expansion progress and described the crypto exchange as the company’s core product. The complaint alleges investors who bought shares between the IPO and the pivot announcement paid “artificially inflated prices” and are seeking damages and a jury trial.
What the Earnings Show
The earnings released Thursday afternoon tell a company in significant financial strain.
Gemini reported a full-year 2025 net loss exceeding $500 million. Q4 net revenue came in at $56.4 million, up 13% quarter on quarter but below the $60.3 million some analyst estimates had projected, with a Q4 net loss of $140.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of negative $92.2 million. Operating expenses were $171.7 million in Q4, approximately flat from the prior quarter.
Retail trading volume fell 11% quarter on quarter to $1.6 billion as crypto markets pulled back toward year-end. As of March 1, total headcount stood at approximately 445, down roughly 30% from the start of the year, further than the 25% reduction the company announced in February. Gemini said it was not providing a financial outlook for 2026.
The Prediction Market Bet
Gemini’s shareholder letter described prediction markets as a natural extension for users already comfortable expressing directional views on crypto prices, and noted that 55% of prediction market traders also held a Gemini Credit Card, a signal the company read as evidence of cross-product adoption.
The company said it was exploring bringing prediction market contract structures to commodities, indices, and other futures markets but described itself as being in the “earliest stages” of the category.
The shares rose slightly in after-hours trading after the earnings release, recovering from a 16% intraday drop on the day the lawsuit and earnings arrived simultaneously.
